Do not rely on electoral college tracking maps based on media whim and prayer

Today, CNN released its 2020 electoral college tracking map It makes the race look very close, in spite of its own polling showing Biden 14%in the lead That’s because the map isn’t based upon polls, however the inklings of insiders:

This map is not implied to be predictive of what it will appear like in November. It is an inaugural snapshot based upon discussions with Democratic and Republican operatives across the nation, project aides and officeholders about how they all see the present landscape

Polls are, contrary to report, normally precise. In 2016, Clinton won the total vote by the margin suggested by polls and her loss came down to electors from “battlefield” states where most polls had the candidates within the margin of mistake. By the end, for example, Clinton was leading Trump by 1%in Pennsylvania, and lost to him by less than 1%. Trump’s win ashamed pollsters not due to the fact that their numbers were substantially incorrect, but because they entered into the practice of elaborating those numbers with their own punditry. They succumbed to the demand for consistent publishing that their typically accurate genuine work might not feed.

Just for the hell of it, here’s an electoral college map based upon present state-level polling averages

I’m not saying anything about it, besides to mention that polls alter fast and that it however tells an extremely various a story to the one news editors are generally thinking about.

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